Musings on Newcomb’s problem

June 28, 2010

Newcomb’s paradox posits a game with a transparent box containing $1 and an opaque box containing either $0 or $1,000. A Player is offered the choice between only the opaque box or both boxes. Before the Player makes this choice, a Predictor has attempted to predict the Player’s choice. The Predictor puts $1,000 into the opaque box, if the prediction is that only this box will be chosen. Otherwise, the Predictor puts $0.

The Predictor neither has a time machine nor some gift for backward causation. It is assumed, however, that the Predictor is rather reliable, though not necessarily infallible. Should the Player choose the opaque box only or both boxes? Read the rest of this entry »